Kitty Math 101

[Liriel Garnet]

Here's the best argument I've seen yet for selling cats for a reasonable price on the secondary markets: the cost to produce one back-bred offspring from a brand-new starter (this is the technique most often used for pulling out the new traits in starters).

Assumptions:
1) all food and milk is at most beneficial pricing (multi-pack discount)
2) partner cat is one you already own, so the only cost associated with that will be food/milk for one week
3) no vitamins or other enhancements used

cost of starter = 250L
cost of food for week 1 = 0L (assume using starter food)
cost of food/milk for one week (2 cats) = 140L (first gen OS box at end of week)
cost of food/milk for one week (starter) = 70L
cost of food for one week (1stG OS) = 38L
cost of food/milk for one week (2 cats) = 140L (2nd gen box at end of week)

grand total = 638L (add another 500 if the starter is one of the specials)

Even using a 9T cat for a partner, you're going to be lucky to have 3-4 traits showing in the 2nd gen box. Also remember, if this is a new recessive trait, your chances for pulling it out on the first backbreed are only 25%. We won't even *talk* about how long it could take to get an offspring of the right gender to backbreed!

You might get lucky and pull out some super new super rare thing that you can sell immediately for 1000s of Linden. But let's be honest, other than a few very lucky breeders, how often has this happened to you? I've been breeding about 9 months with a relatively large cattery, and I've never once had this happen. Most of us spend weeks, if not months pulling the traits out and onto reasonably well-traited cats.

I know there are those that disagree, but this is why I refuse to sell cats for firesale prices.

[Ethereal Hurricane]

That's all well and good, but that would have to mean that for every single cat you got and sold at second gen would have to be the same exact value. That just isn't the case. When you're dealing with things like dominance, recessive, rarity, and many other factors, you can never have it so that the value of any cat MUST be exactly what it costs to create it. If that were the case, no new cat would be worth more than any other cat.

If there are 40,000 Abyssinian Fawns out there, and only 3 Burmese Champagnes, what one do you think would be worth more? That's not even counting recessive or dominance orders. There are just to many factors at play, supply vs. demand, etc, that wont allow for every single box that is created to be worth AT LEAST xxx price. There is also the factor that each box is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Which can favor lesser valued cats to an extent, but usually that isn't the case.

A good way too look at it is, when new furs are discovered, people are willing to pay a pretty hefty premium for them. They usually don't even care if its been confirmed where in the dominance charts the fur may stand (although most breeders should have a decent educated guess on where it might be without the need of a chart). It might take a few months, or only a few weeks, but the prices go down. It took a fairly long time for black and silvers to drop to where they are now, sadly some of the Balinese cats seem to be dropping even faster. But you cannot do anything about that unless you were the lucky person to discover said trait.

I think fire sales are a waste of time as well, and most of the time undesired boxes are sent to the menagerie on the spot. Which means I lost on that cat, the cost of what it took to breed to make it. Which justifies me being able to try and sell the cat I actually wanted to get for that much more.

I wish I could get away with selling every single 2nd or heck, even 3rd box I made for at least 638 lindens, but I know that just isn't the case with the current market.

[Tad Carlucci]

I could work out the expected cost, and expected variance in that cost, for the OP breeding pattern. It would almost surely show that the true cost of a merchantable outcome is higher, probably quite a bit higher, that 640 lindens.

On the other hand, I could also work out a marketing plan which showed that selling at any price not less than that paid for sending a cat to the Menagerie is rational and, given the merchantable cat from the first exercise, can even be profitable.

I love math. And I firmly believe statistics can be illuminating and informative. But this is one of those areas where we truly can prove any point of view we want. Put another way: I consider all such mathematical approaches are equally correct, and equally flawed.

The market is what it is.

You can swim with the tide, you can swim against it, or you can let it carry you where it will .. it's your choice and there is no way to show any choice is better, or worse, than any other.

[bigbritchz Topaz]

BAH ...never good at math but i do know i WILL not pay 634 for a gen cat to much in my estimation!

[Liriel Garnet]

(05-09-2012 08:26 PM)bigbritchz Topaz Wrote:  BAH ...never good at math but i do know i WILL not pay 634 for a gen cat to much in my estimation!

and from Ethereal: I wish I could get away with selling every single 2nd or heck, even 3rd box I made for at least 638 lindens, but I know that just isn't the case with the current market.

FWIW, I never said I'd try to sell a gen cat for 63xL or every 2nd or third box or anything of the sort. What I said was that I refuse to contribute to making the market fall prematurely by holding firesales and selling very *nice* cats at prices far below current market value.

Ethereal actually got part of my point when he/she said firesales are a waste of time. It's not about being a waste of time, and that's what I was trying to underscore with the math that I presented. The point is that while a firesale may bring a few hundred linden in (or even a few thousand, depending on the cat being sold) over the short term, the long term effects of such sales on the marketplace will only harm the seller and the rest of the marketplace.