I am so frustrated with Confettis I wish I was seeing Red!

[Callie Cline]

Thank you for sharing your experience. Will be reaching out in world and learn more. Thank you again.

[Evolving Yin]

(01-04-2021 09:36 PM)Callie Cline Wrote:  Thank you for sharing your experience. Will be reaching out in world and learn more. Thank you again.

Thank you Callie for the follow up, and for taking the time to reach out to me in world about my experiences with the confettis. Your encouragement regarding this line of KittyCats is very much appreciated. After talking to you, I understand more about the thought processes and challenges behind this Confettis. I feel better after our discussion, and want to encourage any other confetti breeders who have run into similar issues with the confettis as I have to reach out to either Callie or Foxie.

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(01-04-2021 08:20 PM)Fergie Weezles Wrote:  I'm still fairly new and not as smart as ya'll seem to be but I did play, and I emphasize the word play, with some Confetti.
I only wanted to try and trait some up for fun and luckily that did work well, but then again I started with good stock.
Along the road I saw that this was a never game to get a nine traiter. Never in the sense that It'd take more time than I would give them. I never sweated the details much and enjoyed them, only stopping breeding them because I don't sell them and have a ton live that need my attention. I sold one mega which I regret actually. That was a 4T Lime...ugh.

Anyway I feel your pain and anguish, not through my Confetti experience but while making other cats that omg just never, after even generations, give me what I need. It seemed to me that Confetti are the ultimate game to play in Kittys.

I don't know much as I said but maybe a 9T would need some newer more recessive traits to pull the old stock traits.
Like having all that dominant stuff banging heads is not going to get there.

If anyone ever does get there I would love to see you make it ! Hopefully a change comes and you make that nine
Best wishes

Thank you Fergie! Confettis are a different animal then regular breeding and I don't think the problem I am having has to do with newer recessive traits vs old stock traits, but more about the odds of getting a color from two color confettis.

I talked to Callie last night about the issues I have been having with the confettis, and am feeling much better about the challenges I have had with them. I felt very encouraged after talking with her, and feel that perhaps a 9T cat is not impossible after all.

Fergie, your post and support are very encouraging and much appreciated. For now, I have decided not to give up on my confettis yet, and continue with my lines. As you say, starting with good stock is key. I have worked to long and hard to develop these lines to give up on them now. My confetti lines, as am I, are Evolving

[Fergie Weezles]

(01-05-2021 04:33 AM)Evolving Yin Wrote:  

(01-04-2021 09:36 PM)Callie Cline Wrote:  Thank you for sharing your experience. Will be reaching out in world and learn more. Thank you again.

Thank you Callie for the follow up, and for taking the time to reach out to me in world about my experiences with the confettis. Your encouragement regarding this line of KittyCats is very much appreciated. After talking to you, I understand more about the thought processes and challenges behind this Confettis. I feel better after our discussion, and want to encourage any other confetti breeders who have run into similar issues with the confettis as I have to reach out to either Callie or Foxie.

---

(01-04-2021 08:20 PM)Fergie Weezles Wrote:  I'm still fairly new and not as smart as ya'll seem to be but I did play, and I emphasize the word play, with some Confetti.
I only wanted to try and trait some up for fun and luckily that did work well, but then again I started with good stock.
Along the road I saw that this was a never game to get a nine traiter. Never in the sense that It'd take more time than I would give them. I never sweated the details much and enjoyed them, only stopping breeding them because I don't sell them and have a ton live that need my attention. I sold one mega which I regret actually. That was a 4T Lime...ugh.

Anyway I feel your pain and anguish, not through my Confetti experience but while making other cats that omg just never, after even generations, give me what I need. It seemed to me that Confetti are the ultimate game to play in Kittys.

I don't know much as I said but maybe a 9T would need some newer more recessive traits to pull the old stock traits.
Like having all that dominant stuff banging heads is not going to get there.

If anyone ever does get there I would love to see you make it ! Hopefully a change comes and you make that nine
Best wishes

Thank you Fergie! Confettis are a different animal then regular breeding and I don't think the problem I am having has to do with newer recessive traits vs old stock traits, but more about the odds of getting a color from two color confettis.

I talked to Callie last night about the issues I have been having with the confettis, and am feeling much better about the challenges I have had with them. I felt very encouraged after talking with her, and feel that perhaps a 9T cat is not impossible after all.

Fergie, your post and support are very encouraging and much appreciated. For now, I have decided not to give up on my confettis yet, and continue with my lines. As you say, starting with good stock is key. I have worked to long and hard to develop these lines to give up on them now. My confetti lines, as am I, are Evolving

All that is wonderful to hear, and I'd love to see you list some for sale...lol.
Thanks for the post too, good luck !

[Evolving Yin]

[/quote]
All that is wonderful to hear, and I'd love to see you list some for sale...lol.
Thanks for the post too, good luck !
[/quote]

Lol, I am a confetti hoarder. I never know what I am going to need, and I am always so afraid to sell something I might need. It takes a lot of time to research all the histories, etc. Some day!

[Aubreygrace Starlight]

I just started doing them again and they have mostly only have had 1-2 confetti per pair so far. It's very frustrating, i feel like giving them up again but they are fun but the odds are so bad for me. hugs i hope it gets better

[Evolving Yin]

(01-05-2021 06:58 AM)Aubreygrace Starlight Wrote:  I just started doing them again and they have mostly only have had 1-2 confetti per pair so far. It's very frustrating, i feel like giving them up again but they are fun but the odds are so bad for me. hugs i hope it gets better

Hugs, thanks Aubrey! Good luck to you as well

[Dimpz Morane]

I am gobsmacked you got 8 traits on them. I have only manged to get 6 and have had some nice confetti's only for the line to completely die out on me too. Not to mention some starter confetti's that have refused to throw their hidden confetti furs, which is truly frustrating.

But there we go again for the love of Kittycats!

[Tad Carlucci]

Of course it __is__ **possible** to obtain a 9T Confetti.

The problem is your breeding pattern.

The best way to obtain a 9T Confetti would be to breed for Pupil Size __first__. And only accept a Confetti fur (any color) showing Small pupil from two Confetti Starters. During the course of producing those Confetti offspring, monitor the non-Confetti boxes you're discarding. If any of those boxes show Small pupil, then the Large Pupil Confetti offspring are allowed to breed with Confetti Starters (first choice) or other Large Pupil Confetti who have Small Pupil non-Confetti siblings. If at all possible, breed only Confetti Starters until you have an established line of Small Pupil Confetti.

At the same time, run the exact same program except choose for Mysterious Eye Shape.

Only when you have established lines for Small and other established lines for Mysterious should you cross-breed to produce Mysterious Small.

Only when you have establiished lines of Mysterious Small should you then breed for other trait values such as non-White Confetti. But whatever your next project is, it __must__show Mysterious/Small eyes.

Technically, when selecting for one trait value, you run the risk of loosing others. But the effect is most noticible with eye shape and pupil size. So, if you get side-tracked and decide to work on that cool Tail for a while, you're likely going to loose any chance of getting Small or Mysterious and having to start over again from fresh Confetti Starters.

Finally, remember that a successful Confetti "line" is actually a "stable". If you just have one male and one female, the odds are in a few months you won't have any. You want several. And you want new versions of the project in the pipe-line. I've not done the math, but (lick finger-feel wind) I'd guess you'll want to be starting a new copy (maybe two or even four) of the project every week, forever.

---

Earlier I mentioned that I took a look at creating a feedback loop in an attempt to 'fix' the problems with breeding populations and stated that doing so leads to the Mandlebrot Set and Chaos.

Here's a fairly interesting video which shows the effect: The Feigenbaum Constant (4.669) - Numberphile. And a follow-up: What's so special about the Mandelbrot Set? - Numberphile.

I forget which (or if it was another) explains that the Mandlebrot Set actually includes the Logistic Map when viewed in the real plane (cross-section).

In the video about the Feigenbaum Constant, there is a value, lambda (λ), which represents the rate of reproduction. (This value has been in the news much, recently, BTW. Who says esoteric math doesn't show up in the Real World?) The speaker talks of "the death zone", stable zones, and what happens when the lambda value gets too large. My estimate is that lamda for Confetti is just a bit smaller than 1 (so, in the "death zone") while the value for non-Confetti cats is well up there, probably around 12 or so, putting it well into exponential growth, if not into a Chaos zone.

(ETA: Oops, did a check and 'my' lambda is a ratio of parents and children, where 'theirs' is the result. So what I mean, in their terms, is that KittyCats feels like it's somewhere above 3.5, doubling or re-doubling and possibly chaotic)

[Evolving Yin]

(01-05-2021 08:21 AM)Dimpz Morane Wrote:  

I am gobsmacked you got 8 traits on them. I have only manged to get 6 and have had some nice confetti's only for the line to completely die out on me too. Not to mention some starter confetti's that have refused to throw their hidden confetti furs, which is truly frustrating.

But there we go again for the love of Kittycats!

Lol, thanks for helping me keep it in perspective!

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(01-05-2021 09:50 AM)Tad Carlucci Wrote:  Of course it __is__ **possible** to obtain a 9T Confetti.

The problem is your breeding pattern.

Thank you Tad, but I don't think the problem is my breeding pattern. I have already established lines with both eye traits. I think the problem is I am lucky if I get one offspring from the line with the needed gender to continue the pattern. You cannot continue a pattern if the line does not give you a confetti offspring, or won't give you the needed gender, or it won't pass traits when bred with a cat from outside it's own pedigree. You cannot breed luck. You can only increase the odds by breeding volume.

[Tad Carlucci]

Well, that's why I keep adding comments about Chaos. But that's jumping too far down the road.

Let's just take your basic question: Can we adjust the probability of a Confetti appearing so that we avoid certain death or explosive growh (seen as certain death in pricing)?

Technically, the answer is: yes, but only if we don't want a playable game and, intead, want a simple production machine.

So, the answer, for us, is: NO!

If the production per parent is some random factor less than 1 we get the Confetti's we have now. The population will eventually die. We can adjust how quickly it will die, but death is certain.

If the production per parent is some factor more than 1, we get the non-Confetti's we have now. The population will eventually grow to consume all of Second Life (or, in this case, all of AWS, since we only need an online database of living cats and boxes, and eventually delete all non-breeding and menagerie cats to make room for more). We can adjust only how quickly that will happen.

To get the production to be exactly 1 we have two choices.

We can simply eliminate all randomness and give it to you. Choose a rule. The easiest is "the first offspring will be Confetti, then no others." But that's not a game. It's boring. And we have that game, already, every season with the Special Offspring. Another easy fix simply says "Confetti is just a breedable fur trait, like Red Tabby or any other." But that eliminates the "Confetti Game" entirely.

Or we can try to add feedback where we're keeping it close to 1. As it moves up and down, we adjust the lambda to counter the offset.

And THERE is where Chaos enters the picture.

We really can't tell if the adjustment we're about to make will help or hurt. And if it hurts, the countering change might help too much, not enough, or hurt more. There is no way to know. Maybe our feedback will settle down. Maybe it will cycle. Maybe we'll crash. Maybe we'll explode. Maybe the result will be so chaotic we have no idea what to do next. All we can see is large changes will generally have large effect. While Chaos Theory tells us that small changes might have little effect, but can have surprisingly large effect. We just won't know until we commit to doing so. And, then, when we find out, it's too late: either we don't have any Confetti to work with, or we have so many we have kill a HUGE bunch off just to have a managable set to work with. Neither is very acceptable.