All about Confetti kittens: 8 total colors found! update

[Tad Carlucci]

As I read it, the initial working theory should be:

1) If either parent is NOT a Confetti (starter or offspring) the offspring will NEVER be a Confetti.
2) If both parents are Confetti, there is a CHANCE the offspring will be as well.

These are stated rules, quoted above.

From this I conclude:
a) having a Confetti 'breed' (fur name starts with 'Confetti - ') is NECESSARY for a Confetti offspring.
b) having a Confetti 'breed' is NOT SUFFICIENT. There is a random factor involved.

This leads to the first question: What are the odds of a Confetti offspring appearing?

Given a Confetti offspring, we're given, from the rules shown, above, that there is both a dominant (shown) trait value, and recessive (hidden) trait value.

This leads to the next question: Do these traits exhibit the simple, strict dominance pattern we see with normal furs. A good working hypothesis here is to presume they do, until proven otherwise.

Which leads to the next question: What are the possible trait values? At this early stage, until offspring appear, the best we can do is list those values observed in Confetti Starters.

Then, when Confetti offspring begin to appear, we need to ask: Are there trait values which did NOT appear on Confetti starters.

And: What is the dominance relationship between the various Confetti furs.

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When examining Confetti Starters and Offspring, it may be best to treat them as a completely different breedable product. As such, we're back to Square-One when it comes to knowledge.

Given the extreme care which must be taken when breeding, the extraordinary cost of the Starters, and the unknown random factor, I expect it will take quite a bit longer then we'd expect with a normal new fur trait to determine the dominance relationship.

For the chart maintainers, I recommend a NEW dominance chart, specifically for Confetti offspring from Confetti parents. From the rules stated above, and non-Confetti offspring.

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A sub-set of the testing should be to treat the 'normal' (non-Confetti) offspring as special. There are questions here, such as:

- do the Confetti furs (shown and/or hidden) have any relationship to the normal furs produced. For example, does the appearance of a given Confetti fur tell us anything about the dominant (shown on the offspring) or recessive (hidden on the offspring).

- are the non-Confetti furs fixed from the offspring's heritage, or are they generated at the moment the offspring appears. The rules appear to imply this is the case, but it needs to be tested.

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Presuming that genetic heritage controls the non-Confetti fur which results when failing the random check, and that there will certainly be a number of you looking to produce 'pure' (provable by the mere fact Confetti appears) multi-generation lines of Confetti, you should be aware of a HUGE down-side to your breeding programs ...

'Genetic Drift' for non-Confetti furs can be expected to kick in, *!*!*HARD*!*!*, with multi-generation Confetti breeding. This means, should a non-Confetti offspring appear, both the normal fur you see, and the hidden you don't, will tend to become 'locked in' as you move down the generations. This will occur no matter how many Confetti Starters you begin with. It will occur more quickly with smaller collections, but it will occur for ALL lines. The effect can be temporarily lessened by crossing one Confetti line with another (effectively adding more Starters to the mix).

While the specific normal fur trait value which 'locks in' due to 'Genetic Drift' when line-breeding 'pure' Confetti is random, more dominant values will tend to lock in more often than recessive values.

Let's presume that all Confetti Starters have a hidden Dominant Normal Starter Fur (that is, a Genesis fur) and a hidden Recessive Normal
Fur (that is, non-Genesis fur).

And let's presume the Confetti Start Set is only one Male and one Female.

Their Confetti offspring will hide the parent's Normal Starter. This means there is a 75% chance this offspring, too will have a hidden Normal Dominant Genesis Fur (which may appear on it's non-Confetti offspring). And there is a 50% change this offspring will also have a hidden Normal Recessive Genesis Fur.

Crossing a boy from those parents with a girl from those same parents will, occasionally (often?) produce a non-Confetti offspring, which is discarded (sold).

The offspring from the boy Confetti OS and the girl Confetti OS will have a 93.75% chance of having a hidden Normal Dominant Genesis fur; and a 75% chance (I think, need to do more math to check, but the idea is sound) of also hiding a Normal Recessive Genesis fur.

Take that a couple more generations and it's virtually certain your Confetti OS will hide a specific 'Pure Genesis' fur. And their non-Confetti offspring will SHOW, with virtual certainty, that PURE Genesis Fur.

This should be expected to lead to two effects:

1) Purchasers will insist upon knowing that the 'normal' cat they're getting is NOT from a Confetti line.
2) Selling prices for non-Confetti offspring from your Confetti line should be expected to crash *!*!*HARD*!*!* .. probably to the point where you're better served using the Menagerie for all non-Confetti offspring.

How badly this will occur, of course, depends upon whether the genetic heritage matters, and the initial (Starter) state.

- The effect will disappear if the non-Confetti OS receive RANDOMLY CHOSEN Normal (non-Confetti) furs.

- The effect will lessen if the Confetti Starters hidden Dominant Normal Fur is NOT required to be a Genesis fur. This, however, is a statement applied to the 'world' of Confetti lines.

Within a given line, no matter how the Normal Starter furs are selected for Confetti Starters, the effect will remain the same. All which changes is the specific Normal Fur which the line carries and locks in.