Corona Virus - how can we help?

[Tad Carlucci]

I worry about schooling. I expect, no matter what is done, most students will wind up repeating the year. I expect the big problem will be first grade (or kindergarden, it depends). All those in this year's class will need to repeat it to make up for this year. Class sizes for the later years will probably remain about the same. But time stops for noone. Next year the entry class will be doubled. There won't be enough teachers and the individual student's performance will suffer as a result. And, each year thereafter, over the next 12 years, the problem will move upwards one grade level. In a decade, we'll have a crop of students who've missed significant parts of every year in every area. Boards of Ed. can adjust somewhat, though. Perhaps some staff can be shifted. Perhaps students can be shovelled along and given remedial assistance. But, at some point, the students will be less prepared to enter the job market. I expect we're going to see downstream effects for decades to come.

Colleges, especially private schools, are going to be a big problem if we see a significant number of primary education students being held back. Many of their current students won't be able to afford an extra year, and their incoming Freshmen will be significantly reduced. Next year (2021) I expect we'll see a lot of stories about cash strapped colleges and universities having to cut programs due to an almost 25% reduction in tuition income. Then, for admissions in about a decade (fall of 2034), I expect we'll see stories about a doubling of the rejection rate simply due to the fact there are not going to be enough desks for this coming year's doubled-up crop of first graders.

Meanwhile, over the coming decades, employers will increasingly complain about a lack of qualified applicants. It will start next year with a larger-than-normal number of those without a college degrees, die down for a few years, then come back as applicants begin showing up with weaker math skills, poor language skills, even, eventually, more poor writing skills.

So, this year, we can all be appreciative of the Herculean efforts in the health care industry. I hope, though, over the coming decade, we're just as appeciative of the equally Herculean effort of equiping our children for adulthood as a result of this year.