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Will I only get males?
11-21-2014, 09:49 AM (This post was last modified: 11-21-2014 10:21 AM by Tad Carlucci.)
Post: #21
RE: Will I only get males?
Ah. But, remember, we're talking about computer programs. The intention of random number generators is to produce a 'fair coin'. A lot of very good mathematicians have put a lot of work into designing those random number generators. Sure, technically, since they are generators, and so, by definition, cannot be 'truly' random. And, yes, some functions designed in the '80s were shown in the 90s to be weak on producing unpredictable results. But, neither you nor I are one of those scary good mathematicians qualified to either design OR test those functions.

What I have done, and what KittyCatS has done (yes, we talked at length about it, years ago), is perform the basic tests to ensure the results appear fair.

Yes, you can hypothesize all sorts of alternate implementations. And you're free to waste your time testing to see if any of them were used. But the code is simple. And, even using the weakest random number generator available, rand(), will produce results which will require millenia for you to 'crack' ..and that's assuming you have results for EVERY cat's gender. The code is simply "if rand(0,1) == 0 then gender = female else gender = male" or something very much like that. And all tests performed by KittyCats (who DOES have access to 100% of the results) and me (using randomly selected samples) indicate the results produce 50/50 distribution. within the statistical limits imposed by the sizes of the datasets.

If you have results indicating otherwise, instead of hypothesizing complex systems which might have been used, and you feel your results indicate the distribution is not 50/50, then you'd better spend your time better examining the sources of bias in your dataset. For example, you're selecting only 'pure' from 'pure' parents, which means you're, by your admission, discarding a number of offspring. And I doubt you're using randomly selected parents, either, since you're attempting to breed 'pure' lines. So, it seems to me you're likely more often selecting, even if subconsciously, males-from-this-line to breed with females-from-other-lines and ignoring that YOUR selection bias will, naturally, produce lines biased to one gender or the other.

As for weighting systems and multi-factor systems, there are simple tests which can be (and have been, repeatedly) performed which can show whether they exist. And, as I said, KittyCatS and I (along with a few others) have performed these tests. The results have consistently been presumptive-negative for information content in gender results .. in other words, within the limits of sample (which, remember, is 100% coverage for KittyCatS) there is no information content in gender .. which means, to a very high degree of confidence, there is no weighting and no undiscovered, obscure, multi-factor systems.
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11-21-2014, 09:07 PM (This post was last modified: 11-21-2014 09:19 PM by Shamu077 Resident.)
Post: #22
RE: Will I only get males?
(11-21-2014 09:49 AM)Tad Carlucci Wrote:  And all tests performed by KittyCats (who DOES have access to 100% of the results) and me (using randomly selected samples) indicate the results produce 50/50 distribution. within the statistical limits imposed by the sizes of the datasets.

Read what I have said at least three times now - random sampling OR access to large populations produces a 50/50 gender result. I have always said that, so I have no idea why you keep bringing this up. You, and KC are simply not running the same experiment I am. And it appears you never have.

Quote:If you have results indicating otherwise, instead of hypothesizing complex systems which might have been used, and you feel your results indicate the distribution is not 50/50, then you'd better spend your time better examining the sources of bias in your dataset. For example, you're selecting only 'pure' from 'pure' parents, which means you're, by your admission, discarding a number of offspring. And I doubt you're using randomly selected parents, either, since you're attempting to breed 'pure' lines. So, it seems to me you're likely more often selecting, even if subconsciously, males-from-this-line to breed with females-from-other-lines and ignoring that YOUR selection bias will, naturally, produce lines biased to one gender or the other.

The distribution is not 50/50 for a particular Pure breeding pair only. I am running a controlled experiment, and none of the assumptions you made above are true.

All offspring with the gender bias are from the same bloodline, which all trace back to just one Pure breeding pair. I only select females and males from their offspring, basically 100% family incest. Brothers with sisters, daughter with fathers, boys with grandmothers, etc. This family shoots outsiders before they ever reach the parcel boundary!

The key word here is Persistence. All kittens from all offspring in this incestual family have the same persistence to make 4 boys for every girl kitten. This trend has persisted for many generations, and only with offspring from the original breeding pair. Over 2 years of breeding family clones, usually 2 kittens per week, and there is no change in the trend. It has nothing to do with my "selection" or perception. I record all births, and keep records of all offspring in this family, whether bred, sold, or placed in inventory. And my spreadsheet knows how to count gender.

There has never been a breeding pair from this family that has produced more girls, or more than 4 girls out of 15 offspring. And I never see two consecutive girl births from the same pair, even though this is statistically common, over hundreds of births.

The only way to break up this persistence is to breed a family clan cat with some other line. Then the gender becomes more normal. That is not the experiment however. I know if I breed cats randomly from different lines I get a more typical 50/50 gender distribution over large sample size, as I said before.

The original breeding pair boxes were bought from Erika, for $L2000. She did the hard work of breeding the pure line pair back in early 2012, as she did with many of her pairs. I was worried we might not get back the initial investment, because I felt they should be sold as breeding pairs. The first 5 kittens from Erika's cats were all boys. We needed a girl to make a pair - and it took 8 weeks just to get the first girl. We sold the first kittybox breeding pair finally, and waited another 5 weeks for the 2nd girl offspring. Getting a girl from her pair was a major event! Things did not change breeding the offspring.

This was not unheard of then; read the Breeder's Rant Topic I dug up hereSmile The business strategy was to sell the live breeders at 100% Love, once we had another producing pair. We sold a lot of live cats at age 60 or older, because that's how long it took to get a girl offspring replacement. After that it turned into a long term experiment - and so far, there has been no return to gender equality in all the generations.
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