State of the Market

[Tad Carlucci]

Every now and then I like to take a look at how KittyCatS are doing. That is, make an estimate as to how many cats there are out there breeding, how many people are breeding, etc.

This is part of a personal research project into how breedable perform, in general. Some breedables provide detailed information, and I track them on a regular basis. KittyCatS information is a bit harder to track. But, every now and then, I take a look at how things are going. So, here goes:

I'm estimating no more 2.1 Million cats have been produced. This number is probably high, perhaps by as much as 0.13 Million. So, a good working estimate is just 2 Million.

I'm estimating that about 3,250 boxes are produced each day. I have low confidence in this number, and estimate the error range to be +/- 250 boxes.

Given that, and the about-a-week breeding cycle, I'm estimating that the breeding population is presently around 45,500 adults.

There are, at present, 17,400 accounts on the web server. Based upon the early adopter retention rate of 19%, I'd estimate there are about 3,500 players actively breeding.

This puts the average Cattery size at about a dozen breeding cats. Of course, there is wide variation in Cattery size. Many players have just a couple, and a few have hundreds.

There is no way to estimate the number of cats which are no longer breeding, or boxes, but, at a guess, I'd suggest they total well over ten times the breeding population. So, my guess would be the total Cattery is about half a million cats and boxes.

That means about 1.5 million cats and boxes have been sent to the Menagerie. That's about 430 per active breeder (which seems reasonable).

While these numbers seem quite different than those for other breedable product lines, if I adjust for effective product life, relative costs, etc., KittyCatS ranks at the top, or quite close to it.

20 to 30 new users join the web site, per day.

While most breedables see the number of new accounts, per day, slowly taper off to nothing, KittyCatS have actually seen an increase in their daily rate. Until September of 2013, the rate was fairly stable between 10 and 20 new users, per day. This puts KittyCatS well ahead of the pack and is the reason their production rates are, if not growing, holding steady when their typical competitor is seeing slow, but steady, declines on all metrics.

While I attribute most of the success of the KittyCatS market to the company's consistent good customer support. expansion of the product line, and innovation, I feel it important to point out the company's marketing efforts over the last year, most notably the phenomenal success of the Firestorm Birthday campaign, have been the main reason the company is seeing growth when a typical breedable product would not.

[Saga Felix]

Thanks, Tad - your number-crushing is always quite interesting, even if I am un-technical enough myself to have NO clue how on earth you do it

Technical or not, I still love statistics - especially when no "fantastic" conclusions are drawn from them - and you're good at not doing that

-Saga

[Luna1987 Resident]

as always, vary interesting... i assumed that the Fire Kitty brought new people to kittycats.. lets hope some stick!

[Tad Carlucci]

At present, half the existing 17,400 web accounts appeared after the Sept 3, 2013 Firestorm campaign started.

The company's marketing campaign did bring it a huge number of players (running 100 to 200 per day for first week or two of the primary campaign). Prior to Sept 3, 2013, Daily new account creation was generally flat in the range 10 to 20 per day. After that date, it's still generally flat, but in the range 20 to 30.

This indicates that new users are virtually all from word-of-mouth. What the campaign did was get more mouths passing the word.

In general, customer retention rates drop off fairly quickly over time. By that, I mean you'll lose a lot of new customers right off, many more over the next few months and, eventually, settle into your "base" long-term rate.

The KittyCatS long-term retention rate appears to be about 18.8%. I would expect it to be high because virtually all customer are from word-of-mouth; which is well known to be your best marketing tool. Even then, I consider the KittyCatS rate amazing.

So, yes, the Firestorm campaign bought in new people, and continues to do so even through it ended long ago.

And, yes, some are sticking, and more are sticking now, after the campaign, than before it.

[Kayleigh McMillan]

Yes that Fire kitty was something else keep up the good marketingstrategies KittyCats !
I always admire smart business and you sure know what smart business is

[TabithaWest Resident]

The Firekitty was awesome (I know, that's what drew me in...) but I've also seen the Birthday kitties getting attention on the big fashion blog feeds and non-LE kitties starting to get attention again too!

[Shamu077 Resident]

(02-27-2014 10:22 PM)Tad Carlucci Wrote:  At present, half the existing 17,400 web accounts appeared after the Sept 3, 2013 Firestorm campaign started.
...

So, yes, the Firestorm campaign bought in new people, and continues to do so even through it ended long ago.

And, yes, some are sticking, and more are sticking now, after the campaign, than before it.

I was afraid that the Firestorm kitty would just convince newcomers that cats are free and never eat. It took awhile for new peeps to become buyers in the secondary market - but now the Firestorm campaign is paying off.

I still use the Firestorm Free Kitty in my Picks, in case someone pervs my profile and sees the free kitty at the Main Store. Putting a couple live KittycatS in a music/dance club for patrons to watch and pet, has also brought in many newcomers - who quickly become addicted.

Shamu