How are the Confetti kitties going for you?

[LibGwen Resident]

> Oh, and I do NOT think the Confetti population will ever die out since there will always be Confetti Starters.
> What I am saying, though, is that if you're trying to avoid getting Confetti Starters, and avoid purchasing, you eventually won't get enough offspring to continue.

Another phenomenon will be a market bias toward the most recessive Confetti fur, because many people do love to chase the most recessive traits. It's the furs in between that are hardest to maintain.

[fabioazevedo Oh]

well, if TAD look this pedigree, it can blow all your arguments.

I am very happy with this confetti cat. it has 50% success. This is how 1 in 2.

But it balancer with other cats confetti give no cat.

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1) since I started with only 2 pairs of confetti, and I had a good multiplication of them.
2) in fact, I never bought another confette other breeders.
3) and Yes, my confetti survived without me having bought new started confetti.
4) And recently I had to make a clean sweep because they were many, and eating many foods.

---

here are the results of PEACE, 249 days old. My first couple of confetti started.
4 confetti, 16 attempts = 25%





Here the results of McCloud 243 days of age. my second pair of confetti started.
4 confetti, 16 attempts = 25%





Here the results of Lucca 224 days of age. offspring.
2 confetti, 16 attempts = 12,5%






Here the results of Sangoo 147 days of age. offspring.
7 confetti, 16 attempts = 43,75%

[Tad Carlucci]

As I said, Charm had a pair which gave just about 50%, too.

All such pairs do is confirm it's random. If we never saw such pairs, then, we'd KNOW it's not random.

Such pairs, however, do NOT, by themselves tell us anything about the over-all odds.

[Devilness Chant]

I really am happy for those who had good luck with them. I, on the other hand, had no luck. I got one plumb and sold it to make back the lindens I felt I wasted on boxes to get them. And one white that I gave to a dear friend.

I will always wish I had gotten the giraffe. lol Not for the tail, but just cause it's so darn cute.

All in all, I have to agree with Tad. It really does seem quite random.

[Eleanor8 Resident]

After last week's notecards to Callie and reporting that they were just not making anything bar genesis cats - well, almost - at that stage it was 2 appleberries and a cocoberry from almost 30 pairs in two weeks - this week has been better. A cocoberry, a plumberry, a grapeberry, a pinkberry (the first one my lot have ever made - even though i have two pairs of very reluctant pinks) and today a lemonberry - and they even got the 'wanted' gender on that one right

I've also slung all the pedigree information from my lot - all my confettis are either in world or stashed in inventory for the oldies - onto a spreadsheet - looking at my girls and what they made. Since the confettis were launched they have made

588 kitten boxes

which breaks down as follows - 473 Genesis/normal fur, 115 Confetti (62 Cocoberry, 53 Coloured Confetti). Which is 19.56% Confetti (or about 1 in 5 births), and 9% Coloured Confetti (slightly less than 1 in 10 births).

Full sheet copied below. Though looking at it I'm not really seeing a dramatic shift to producing more coloured boxes as the generations pass. It still seems very hit and miss.

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[fabioazevedo Oh]

We have two theories on table:

1 in 8 and the end of the population of confetti

1 in 4, and the maintenance of the population of confetti.


I did not see the TAD pedigrees, but I showed mine.
I post here a 20-30 pedegrees if necessary.
My theory is based on building systems, and easily identify what is behind the systems.

theory 1 in 4 is quite simple: there are two coins, and one person at a time, go, grab coins, and throw up only when the two coins fall to the crown face 'up, win the prize . thus, one after the other, make use of coins. theory 1 in 4 is not for every avatar. and yes, a single system that everyone uses

but finally, it is good to have two different theories, people can believe in any of them.

[Tad Carlucci]

The 'magic number' is 1-in-5.5 or thereabouts.
Eleanor8 reports about 1-in-5.
At present, Charm shows 1-6.

Both these numbers are very close to that magic number. If that observation holds up as more data appears, it seems that the rate of Confetti offspring is set very close to the 'steady-state' number. Which means, if no Confetti Starters enter the game ever again, and with the normal variation of breeding styles, the Confetti population should remain relatively stable.

Charm's results (being the only ones I have continuous access to) vary a lot (which is to be expected), and seem to average somewhat higher, like 1-in-10. But her results seem to be getting better over the past few weeks.

I'll keep watching, and maybe a few others can share their over-all results, as Eleanor8 did. With more data we should be able to narrow it down. That not only lets us see if the population will explode, shrink, or remain fairly stable. It also allows us to offer guidance such as 'If it's been 7 or 8 boxes and you've not seen a Confetti, menagerie the parents and get fresh ones." which is what I'd say given only those three points.

Personally, I do like Fabio's model. It falls in line with how a lot of other genetic factors work. And it could easily result in 1-in-6 odds by varying the Confetti rate from 1-in-2, per parent, to, say, 1-in-2.4, which would make the net odds 1-in-5.76. Programming-wise, though, especially since this is NOT a genetic fact, it would be easier to just roll once per offspring, which is more like what they seem to do for the per-player special offspring. That means less code, and easier math, making it easier to tweak the results.

[fabioazevedo Oh]

Following the example and Eleanor sheet adjustments, I did a scan in all my pedigres girls confetti, and got the following results.

1) I started with only 2 pairs of confetti started
2) after 250 days, I had: 153 cats born
3) 110 cats are genesis normal or fur
4) 43 are cocoberry confetti or colored
5) it is 28,10% of success
6) this is something like 1 in 3.5, very close to 1 in 4 theory

[xLiquidDreamsx Resident]

I have four breeding pairs at the moment. And in the last two weeks I've gotten 2 Confetti boxes and two Gen boxes. For me it's the non-gen regular furs that never pop. Gen furs definitely make up the majority of my offspring. But luckily they do give me enough confetti os to carry on the lines.

[Tad Carlucci]

Breeding Confetti Starters and looking for non-Genesis furs on the non-Confetti offspring is one thing. But, as you go down the Confetti generations, the chances of ONLY seeing Genesis furs on their non-Confetti offspring grows pretty rapidly.

To my mind, unless the non-Confetti offspring shows something remarkable, it's Menagerie-fodder.