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RE: How are the Confetti kitties going for you?
Cody/Flair results show about 1 in 5.7 odds of getting any Confetti
Fabio results show about 1-in-4 odds of getting any Confetti
Charm results show about 1-in-8 odds of getting any Confetti
Eleanor8 results show about 1-in-5 odds of getting any Confetti
These results are making me think that the correct odds are around 1-in-6.
Possibly interesting observation. This may mean nothing, or might indicate something .. there's really not enough data to be sure. But .. when I look at the age of the parent, taking that as an indication of how long ago it was produced (which is also a shaky assumption but all I can do) I note that the odds, early on, were low, then, a month or three after they came out, parents seemed to produce significantly more Confetti than before (or now) but, a couple-three months after that, results started to slide again. Now, that could be faulty assumptions. And it could be poor data. Or it could simply be random variation. But, if it holds, it causes me to wonder why things got a lot better for a few months, a couple months after initial release, then started getting worse again. For example, Fabio's data indicates an over-all average of 1-in-4; but if I graph over time (by parent age) I get a couple months at 1-in-8-ish range, then a couple months at 1-in-2 range, followed by a long slide down to 1-in-4ish range; and if I do a regression analysis of his results, his trend is currently worse .. more like 1-in-5ish and heading down; so it'll be interesting to see if his results come back up or if then continue to slide over the coming months. But, then again, this could be all smoke and mirrors because there's really not enough data to be sure. [ETA Eleanor8 and Cody/Flair seem to show similar changes over time, just not as pronounced.]
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