How are the Confetti kitties going for you?

[Shukie Galicia]

As i said last night, Confetti are WAY more hit/miss and risk vs reward. They can be incredibily random. With little to no pattern on knowing how many confetti boxes vs duds you'll get.
I've had a pair who gave me 6 cocoberries, a pair who gave me nothing but duds, and a couple pairs that dropped 2-4 coco's. This is over the course of these pairs lifetimes.
They're EXTREMELY unpredictable.

But that un-predictablity is part of what makes them exciting to breed. they can be incredibily frustrating, but they can also be super rewarding, not just in the financial gain, but it feels SO GOOD to see that box be rainbow colored instead of plain

[JessicaArianaHamby Resident]

My confetti gave me nothing until their last 2 births. They gave me confetti for the last 2. Unfortunately, both were boys. So my days of confetti breeding ended. They are so expensive in markets, I probably will not continue.

[Tad Carlucci]

In response to an earlier comment:

There is no "technique" to breeding Confett, per se. Simply put a male Confetti with a female Confetti and hope you get a Confetti offspring. Whether or not you get a Confetti offspring is completely random. There is nothing you can do which can change or effect the odds.

Given two Confetti, and the presumption you will, eventually, obtain a Confetti offspring, the techniques and skills for discovery values, reproduction of values, and such, are identical to normal furs. Thus, if you have two Orange Confetti, one male and one female, you can reasonably assume any Confetti offspring will also be Orange (or, if not, something more recessive to Orange).

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To me the most important question is the odds of a Confetti offspring appearing AT ALL.

At present, I'm still holding to my estimate of 1-in-10 odds. I will admit, however, that I am beginning to consider the odds may be slightly better than that, perhaps 1-in-8.

This lead me to consider what these odds mean, with respect to the general population of Confetti cats. By that, I mean what effect can we expect the odds to have on the total population.

For this, I simplified my model. I presume that gender distribution is always exactly even (it won't be, but it should be generally very close). I also ignored the effect of 'boosts' such as cuddling, milk, and vitamins.

So, the question I asked was, ignoring those effects, what odds are REQUIRED to maintain a steady population?

The answer? 2-in-11 (that is, 1-in-5.5)

This means, if the odds are, as I currently feel, 1-in-10, or even 1-in-8, we MUST EXPECT that, without a constant stream of Confetti Starters, the total population of Confetti cats MUST STEADILY SHRINK. This rate is not exceedingly fast, but it is there. At 1-in-10 odds an initial population of 10,000 Confetti would completely disappear (that is, no longer be able to breed) in around 4 years; at 1-in-8 it would last about 6.5 years. At 1-in-5.5 the population would be expected to remain stable at 10,000 breeding parents.

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As I have said before, another effect we can expect from breeding Confetti cats is the clear on-set of genetic drift.

At the time, I was mainly concerned with the effect upon the underlying non-Confetti furs (that is, those appearing on 9-of-10 of the offspring from Confetti pairs).

As it turns out, examining the results of breeding Confetti, over time, there is clear indication of genetic drift with the Confetti furs, themselves.

While, given the proper parents, one CAN counter these effects, I judge it extremely unlikely the average breeder has the required stock. For example, one might have ONE Orange, but seems unlikely, without active trading, that one would have TWO. And, if one did, it seems likely that tends to deny others a similar ability for quite some time.

What I am seeing is that breeders must, in general, choose a pair with mis-matched Confetti furs and, when this occurs, we can expect the outcome to, on average, favor replication of the more-dominant furs.

This means, not only should we expect the population to shrink, over time, but we must also expect any advances and discoveries to disappear. In my simplistic model of 10,000 parents, I would expect that that last breeding pair, in 4 years, would both be White, as would their sole (unbreedable, for lack of any mate) offspring.

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Therefore, I propose the following 'technique' as guidance for those wishing to breed Confetti cats:

1) Commit to having AT LEAST TWO PAIRS. If you have only one pair, you run the risk of having NO Confetti offspring, at all. With two pairs, by the time they age out, you should (on average, remember, it's random, so there is NO guarantee) have one pair (which, of course, might be the same gender).

2) Commit to sending ALL non-Confetti offspring to the Menagerie.

3) Breed non-Confetti as Menagerie-fodder. The 18 or so boxes you'll obtain breeding your two pairs will not be sufficient to obtain a replacement pair. Of course, some of the non-Confetti offspring will be 'good enough' you will not want to Menagerie them, and will need to be replaced from non-Confetti stock.

4) Obviously, to continue breeding Confetti, you will need to obtain fresh stock. Since the population will be shrinking, this means you'll most-likely need to resort to obtaining Confetti Starters. For that, you will need the Menagerie-fodder from (2) and (3).

5) EXPECT FAILURE. While, on average, for a given pair, breed to their maximum age, you should see a Confetti offspring, you should expect some pairs will never produce and offspring.

6) ENJOY WHAT SUCCESS YOU CAN. Sure, you HOPE that you'll see anything other than White. But, things being the way they are, do not allow your disappointment at YAWC (Yet Another White Confetti) to overshadow the joy at seeing ANY Confetti, at all.

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In closing, I want to say that I'm becoming concerned that the poor results and unreal expectations of Confetti breeder are having a negative effect upon the general KittyCatS program. I'm seeing signs of people letting their utter disappointment in the performance of Confetti shade their feelings about KittyCatS, in general, and giving up all breeding when, if they had never gotten into Confetti at all, I'm thinking they would have continued to enjoy KittyCatS for quite some time longer.

My case-in-point, here, is exemplified by Charm who, even though she finally received a Confetti offspring, has re-committed herself to breeding 'normal' cats and has found that the increasingly negative feelings she had toward KittyCatS, in general, quickly disappearing.

[Oselkhandro Resident]

Confettis are not working out well for me either. I have had three pairs, two of which aged out and were not replaced. The third pair has one of dreampoetz' Blues, but has not given me Confetti colors. Most of my boxes, from all three pairs, have been Genesis or Aussie Lilac (with all Genesis traits). I too am giving up on Confetti. My last menagerie purchase was a giraffe kitty: very cute. And, as Tad said, I have been becoming disenchanted with KittyCatS in general. I allowed my regular stock of breeding pairs to fall from over 20 to 7, and have been letting them age without opening any new boxes.

[Malayaa Resident]

Wanted to mention that although I gave up on the Confettis, I still enjoy breeding KittyCats and have been breeding for 4 years now, just on a smaller scale since I've gotten involved with some volunteer groups and have less free time. At home right now I have 2 foster bunnies rescued from a meat farm where they were raised in tiny wire cages, they are incredibly social animals if given the chance and demand lots of my time for petting and bunny field trips into the kitchen

And what I meant by Confetti breeding "technique", I have been secretly hoping there is some undisclosed piece to their breeding puzzle, like "the seventh son of the seventh son of confetti furs, from a line of babies that are born on full moons only, will reveal the most exciting rainbow fur ever and bring world peace and prosperity to all". I also believe in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Heh heh.

Namaste,
Malayaa

[Luna1987 Resident]

I just unboxed my first pair of confetti's I do know the one i bought was born on the 15th, if that helps any.

[Dimpz Morane]

5) EXPECT FAILURE. While, on average, for a given pair, breed to their maximum age, you should see a Confetti offspring, you should expect some pairs will never produce and offspring.


Wants to know who the heck purchases a product, and should expect it to not work or produce?? I know I don't!

[Shukie Galicia]

(03-20-2016 12:23 PM)Dimpz Morane Wrote:  

5) EXPECT FAILURE. While, on average, for a given pair, breed to their maximum age, you should see a Confetti offspring, you should expect some pairs will never produce and offspring.


Wants to know who the heck purchases a product, and should expect it to not work or produce?? I know I don't!

The thing is Dimpz, the cat is doing what kittycats do, doing cat stuff, eating, making babies. they're doing their job. they "have a chance to produce more confetti kittens", as they say they do on the tin(well on the poster/notecard)
You cant go accusing them of "not doing their job" or "not working" when they dont produce a random drop.

Its dissappointing as hell when it happens, when a pair of confetti product no confetti in their breed time, but it is a random drop, and even the 'duds' end up 'useful' as menag fodder, so im not too put off.

[Tad Carlucci]

Here is an example of "Expect Failure" .. say you have 2 males and 2 females, all showing Red and all known to have Orange hidden. You open all four at the same time, pair them, and breed them, producing 20 boxes, in total, until all four age out at 121 days. You should expect (given your luck is exactly 'average') to have two boxes, both showing Red, and have a 50/50 chance of one being male, and one being female; which you're lucky enough to win. Now, though, you only have one pair and, bred out for 120 days, and should only expect to have one box. So, while, in the first generation, you had success, taken to the next generation your breeding program has failed and cannot continue.

Your only option, at this point, is to obtain another Red (or three) from the general market, or obtain another White (or three) starters.

Now, you might get lucky and be able to obtain three more 'Red hiding Orange' from the market and continue for another 8 months before you find yourself back here again.

But you're not alone. Someone else is doing much the same thing. So, every time you cycle through this, either you, or they, are making it impossible for they (or you) to continue and are forced to resort to White Starters.

Eventually, there will be virtually NO Red, or Orange, or anything other than first-gen White offspring of White starters.

So, unless your breeding program is to produce only White offspring from White Starters, with the occasional chance (1-in-4) of getting a non-White offspring you can sell, you're doomed to failure.

Sure, I'm talking about relatively long time periods. That length depends upon how many others there are playing this losing game. But this depends upon nobody getting bored, frustrated, whatever and giving up on Confetti. That's not happening! So it depends upon a stream of new people coming into the Confetti game to replace the lost players. Unfortunately, word-of-mouth works against that. Eventually (maybe already) the poor performance of the Confetti game will ensure the lost players are NOT replaced. Eventually, all you'll find will be only those playing who can accept working only with White Starters, and can accept the need to constantly replace those Starters with other Starters, for the unlikely chance of occasionally having a non-White offspring to sell.

Will the Confetti game end? No. There will always be some who continue. But the 'Confetti Market' WILL contract.

My concern is not that. My concern is that, while this occurs, the feelings will spill over into the 'normal' KittyCatS game, causing a decline there simply in response to the negative feelings the Confetti game engenders. From the comments both on the Forums and which Charm reads to me from the in-world chat groups, I think this is already occurring.

The question is: what can be done about it? Simple, increase the odds of a Confetti offspring appearing to be BETTER THAN that 1-in-5.5 magic number!

The problem is, then, we'll have an ever-increasing Confetti population. We'll begin to actually see lines of non-White continuing to produce sufficient non-White offspring to continue the line.

But that means Confetti are ADDING to the exploding box surplus the game was designed to burn off.

And it means the prices will 'crash' as more and more of those non-White offspring enter the market.

So, while the Confetti game can be 'saved', doing so means it fails to solve the very problems it was designed for.

I'm brought to mind the end of the movie War Games. "The only wining move is not to play the game." Would that KittyCatS had made that move instead of leaving it to the players!

[Dimpz Morane]

Grudgingly agrees with Shukie - but wants you to know I do accuse em of giving me nightmares and frustration!!

And Tad thank you for your extra explanation - now understands your view point.

However, it still leaves a bit of twang - knowing one has traded in 200 boxes, feed and breed x 2 confetti cats for total of 120 days and not gained a single confetti offspring. . Each kitty can produce around 16 boxes each if pair to other kitties, however together its still just a total of around 16 boxes in their breeding cycle, which amounts to less than one fifth of the total needed to gain one single confetti cat.