I am so frustrated with Confettis I wish I was seeing Red!

[Evolving Yin]

I traded a really nice sized cat for a higher traited Cherryberry because I wanted to up trait the line. Two Cherryberries and not one confetti in 15 breedings. This is impossible! If I wasn't so close to nine traits I would quit them! I feel like something is wrong with me for putting myself through this

[Lixy Byron]

I completely stopped my experience with Confetti some time ago because of the frustration of the lottery system to the nth degree. I understand you

[Evolving Yin]

(01-03-2021 10:37 AM)Lixy Byron Wrote:  I completely stopped my experience with Confetti some time ago because of the frustration of the lottery system to the nth degree. I understand you

Thank you Lixy, I have other friends who have also given up on them too. I want to give up on them, but I have invested so much time and money in my lines now that it is heartbreaking to have to stop before realizing my goals for them. However, I am coming to the realization my goals for them are not even possible so why continue the madness? I have been up to 8 traits several times, but never get the right gender or the line dies out before I get any offspring from them

I am hoping that KittyCatS will understand the level of frustration this line of KittyCatS is causing for the community.

[Lixy Byron]

♥♥♥♥♥

[Tad Carlucci]

There is little KittyCatS can do about the "level of frustration" with Confettis without completely changing the nature of the game, most likely to the detriment.

Long ago, I came to the conclusion that breeding Confettis is like playing Global Thermonuclear War on the WOPR: the only way to win is to not play.

Sure, breed them, if you want. But expect failure. That way you can enjoy when you're surprised and something actually happens (don't call it "works" because that leads to the false belief there is a process which can lead to success). But since you're expecting failure, you're not disappointed when, all too often, that's exactly what you get.

[Ivy Norsk]

The issue is that multiple people have gotten (through much pain and money) the confettis up to 8T, but the 9th T refuses to pop. And the question is: is there something in the algorithms that lowers the odds of the 9th Trait popping down to an impossible number? We know that the odds aren't straight on a number of things but weighted.

[Evolving Yin]

(01-03-2021 03:46 PM)Ivy Norsk Wrote:  The issue is that multiple people have gotten (through much pain and money) the confettis up to 8T, but the 9th T refuses to pop. And the question is: is there something in the algorithms that lowers the odds of the 9th Trait popping down to an impossible number? We know that the odds aren't straight on a number of things but weighted.

Yes, Ivy that is the conclusion I am coming to. I think I have achieved everything possible with the confetti's, and they are not worth the frustration anymore. I am going to finish up what I have, but not open anymore boxes. Thank you all for your responses it really is making this process of moving past this easier. I have been breeding confetti's for years.

[Tad Carlucci]

Which is the 9th trait?

Remember that it most definitely __is__ impossible to get many trait values with a Confetti fur.

It is impossible, for instance, to cross-breed a trait from a non-Confetti onto a Confetti. So you have to have it on a Confetti (shown or hidden) to get it to pop out. That means it has to have been available (and actually hidden) in your Confetti starters. So any trait which is not available to a Confetti Starter is impossible for ANY Confetti to have.

Some traits can be very easily discarded and become impossible in your lines. Take large/small pupil size. 100% of all Confetti starters show Large. On average 50% should hide Small. So, on average, only about 1-in-16 2nd generation Confetti will show (and hide), I'd have to work the math again, but I think I worked it out that the odds were vanishingly close to unity (1:1) that Small pupil would be eliminated. That's not _exactly_ zero, but it's a good approximation.

---

The OP was about 15 offspring and no Confetti at all. And feeling this should be impossible.

I think I did the math on that a very long time ago and came out to something around 1-in-8 odds that a given pair would produce no Confetti at all. IIRC it was a bit of 50% odds that you'd get one-or-more offspring and something like 1-in4 that you'd get 2. The "perfect" goal for Confetti would be exactly one offspring per parent. To get that, since some might have 2 or even 3 (15 actually _IS_ possible) there would need to be some parents who produce no Confetti offspring at all.

This is the one place where KittyCatS can make (tiny) adjustments. If, over the years, it's turned out to be slightly less than one-Confetti-child per parent, they might bump the odds up a teensy-weensy bit. Conversely if there's been a bit more than 1-per, they might take it down a tiny bit.

At one point, I modelled a feedback loop which would automate the birth-rate adjustment. Unfortunately, I forgot one thing: that makes a feedback loop for a quadratic and THAT is the very definition of the Mandlebrot Set, and the basis of Chaos Theory. So, of course, it seemed to work fine for thousands of generations with tiny adjustments. But, depending upon the exact conditions (ie., all players be perfect is one condition) whether the system is stable or unstable is unknowable until it actually crashes (nobody left), explodes (insanely large populations keep growing), or manages to become stable. The solution: no feedback. Sigh.

[Evolving Yin]

(01-03-2021 08:30 PM)Tad Carlucci Wrote:  Which is the 9th trait?

Remember that it most definitely __is__ impossible to get many trait values with a Confetti fur.

It is impossible, for instance, to cross-breed a trait from a non-Confetti onto a Confetti. So you have to have it on a Confetti (shown or hidden) to get it to pop out. That means it has to have been available (and actually hidden) in your Confetti starters. So any trait which is not available to a Confetti Starter is impossible for ANY Confetti to have.

Some traits can be very easily discarded and become impossible in your lines. Take large/small pupil size. 100% of all Confetti starters show Large. On average 50% should hide Small. So, on average, only about 1-in-16 2nd generation Confetti will show (and hide), I'd have to work the math again, but I think I worked it out that the odds were vanishingly close to unity (1:1) that Small pupil would be eliminated. That's not _exactly_ zero, but it's a good approximation.

---

The OP was about 15 offspring and no Confetti at all. And feeling this should be impossible.

I think I did the math on that a very long time ago and came out to something around 1-in-8 odds that a given pair would produce no Confetti at all. IIRC it was a bit of 50% odds that you'd get one-or-more offspring and something like 1-in4 that you'd get 2. The "perfect" goal for Confetti would be exactly one offspring per parent. To get that, since some might have 2 or even 3 (15 actually _IS_ possible) there would need to be some parents who produce no Confetti offspring at all.

This is the one place where KittyCatS can make (tiny) adjustments. If, over the years, it's turned out to be slightly less than one-Confetti-child per parent, they might bump the odds up a teensy-weensy bit. Conversely if there's been a bit more than 1-per, they might take it down a tiny bit.

At one point, I modelled a feedback loop which would automate the birth-rate adjustment. Unfortunately, I forgot one thing: that makes a feedback loop for a quadratic and THAT is the very definition of the Mandlebrot Set, and the basis of Chaos Theory. So, of course, it seemed to work fine for thousands of generations with tiny adjustments. But, depending upon the exact conditions (ie., all players be perfect is one condition) whether the system is stable or unstable is unknowable until it actually crashes (nobody left), explodes (insanely large populations keep growing), or manages to become stable. The solution: no feedback. Sigh.

Thanks for the input Tad, this is greatly appreciated.

I have been breeding confettis for years, and the 9th trait always comes down to the eye (mysterious/small). I always breed my confettis to a confetti color. I haven't even used a cocoberry for years. If I count a trait as hidden, the hidden trait is always showing on a parent. I usually breed within my own families and occasionally trade for a cat to up trait a line, or if I am getting the wrong gender consistently and about to lose a line. I watch & track all nine traits very closely on all these lines. To breed a pair of confetti furs (Cherryberry) 15 times and not get a color out of even one breeding means there is not one confetti per parent. This has happened to me multiple times, not just with these Cherryberries. It happened with my 8 traited Blueberries, and a pair of another color as well. I currently have my Pinkberries at 8T too, and find the same pattern unfolding.

Based on years of data in my own lines, I would say the odds of getting a color out of two confetti colors outside an established Familia line is quite low. I understand making a line challenging, I have stuck with confettis much longer than most breeders do. But the odds on successfully breeding a 9T confetti is beyond challenging, it is disheartening. They should come with a warning label lol. It discourages confetti breeders from buying and trading outside of their own lines. These highly discouraging odds not only make it hard to breed confettis, but also to sell them.

[Fergie Weezles]

I'm still fairly new and not as smart as ya'll seem to be but I did play, and I emphasize the word play, with some Confetti.
I only wanted to try and trait some up for fun and luckily that did work well, but then again I started with good stock.
Along the road I saw that this was a never game to get a nine traiter. Never in the sense that It'd take more time than I would give them. I never sweated the details much and enjoyed them, only stopping breeding them because I don't sell them and have a ton live that need my attention. I sold one mega which I regret actually. That was a 4T Lime...ugh.

Anyway I feel your pain and anguish, not through my Confetti experience but while making other cats that omg just never, after even generations, give me what I need. It seemed to me that Confetti are the ultimate game to play in Kittys.

I don't know much as I said but maybe a 9T would need some newer more recessive traits to pull the old stock traits.
Like having all that dominant stuff banging heads is not going to get there.

If anyone ever does get there I would love to see you make it ! Hopefully a change comes and you make that nine
Best wishes