(05-30-2012 02:26 PM)Tad Carlucci Wrote: The "2/3" odds are the odds that I, being greedy, keep the Mysterious offspring for myself and sell you a Curious offspring which hides Mysterious. But for a given Curious cat I do sell you, the odds are 1/2 that it contains Mysterious.
This dichotomy is why sellers feel traits get spread around so fast. The odds are strong that you'll sell someone else the genetics in your "failures" even through the odds are "even" they'll actually receive the genetics.
While it may seem counter-intuitive, the 2/3 probability is actually accurate, and any professor of probabilities will tell you the same. It's all based on a set of probabilities that changes when one (or more) possibilities are removed (as we've done here by eliminating the double-hidden). If you wish a better explanation, feel free to google 'monty hall problem' and 'probabilities'. It's a manifestation of the same thing.
Some Thoughts on Advertising Terminology
