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+--- Thread: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! (/showthread.php?tid=16308)
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Tad Carlucci - 11-06-2014 08:28 AM
By random we mean the results one selection from the series are independent of the results for the next.
In a computer program, we know, since it must have been produced using a deterministic 'program' that the results are not truly independent. So the point is to use a program which is sufficiently complex that, given full knowledge of the steps involved, and any reasonable knowledge of past results, we cannot predict future results.
Some programs are poor at this.
PHP rand(), for example only requires knowledge of three sequential 32-bit results, to correctly predict the next. Obviously, this is too weak. But not it requires knowledge of the exact three values. Rand() always returns a set of 32 bits. But, for, say, gender, we only need one of them.
So, assuming rand() is used (it's not), if you're going to attack Gender, you will need exact results for the previous 12,884,901,888 cats produced. In other words, assuming the ONLY randomness is Gender (it's not), one needs the exact gender of every cat ever produced over the past four years, and which will be produced over the next four years. in the precise order of production, with no error or omission. Then one would need to search the entire set of 4,294,967,296 possible series, to correctly predict the Gender of the next cat produced (and, by extension, all future cats).
So, OK,
- assume KittyCatS ignored all advice every PHP programmer would give them
- and assume the random series for Gender is kept separate and intact over 8 years
- and assume you have perfect knowledge of the exact, time-ordered 13 trillion cats produced over those 8 years
- and you have a computer which can search the attack surface of 4.26 trillion points in some reasonable time (say a few days)
then, sure, you can perfectly predict Gender .. FOUR YEARS FROM NOW!
See what I mean about "good enough for the intended use"?
drat. see? off-the-cuff answers are so easy to make math errors.
not 8 YEARS .. I drop some zeroes in my head .. it's 8 MILLENIA. So, get cracking, and let my descendants know when you finally succeed.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Lostime Resident - 11-06-2014 08:30 AM
..........
Lol......!
Mmmmmm! I'll get my next mega when the kitty gods think it fit............!
Crappers....
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - fabioazevedo Oh - 11-06-2014 08:55 AM
(11-06-2014 07:37 AM)Lostime Resident Wrote: Mmmmm! The one thing I would like to know "IS". Do time play a roll "when a cats is born" say like your cat have a baby say 9pm "a mega" and you re-partner them and the next time "say 7 days later" they have a baby again at 9pm, could it up "better" your chance to get a mega again. "Just a stone in the bushes"! Or should we look at total "Say a 1000 of a kind furs" one different size cat allotted by sever. The word random is always "part of a routine in a program"! The percentage winnings on a slot machine can be set...... is it really random then?
Just something to think of......
the chance to get a megapuss is 3%, with each new box, regardless of day, time.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - fabioazevedo Oh - 11-07-2014 10:55 AM
(11-03-2014 08:16 AM)Crepe Myrtle Wrote:
![[Image: 04b03-b0948a2d-3390-4a20-8504-0e4445d70577.png]](http://grabilla.com/04b03-b0948a2d-3390-4a20-8504-0e4445d70577.png)
Crepe, thank you for sharing your kittens data.
I happy to see your results.
I made an adjustment in my code to loop 2269 times equal to your number of kittens, and for 90% the normal size, to see the results.
Size_Normal = 2009
Size_Teacup = 64
Size_Toy = 47
Size_Petite = 55
Size_BiggerdeBig = 48
Size_MegaPuss = 46
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2026
Size_Teacup = 63
Size_Toy = 48
Size_Petite = 39
Size_BiggerdeBig = 43
Size_MegaPuss = 50
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2011
Size_Teacup = 42
Size_Toy = 59
Size_Petite = 54
Size_BiggerdeBig = 54
Size_MegaPuss = 49
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2035
Size_Teacup = 49
Size_Toy = 47
Size_Petite = 43
Size_BiggerdeBig = 45
Size_MegaPuss = 50
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2003
Size_Teacup = 56
Size_Toy = 42
Size_Petite = 50
Size_BiggerdeBig = 62
Size_MegaPuss = 56
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 1994
Size_Teacup = 47
Size_Toy = 51
Size_Petite = 55
Size_BiggerdeBig = 57
Size_MegaPuss = 65
Total = 2269
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Crepe Myrtle - 11-07-2014 11:07 AM
Hi, Fabao. Thank you for inputting those numbers to create a random presentation, but I really think that the weigh for the megapuss will be around 1%. I am not sure how others are getting the percentage of megapuss in their cattery, but I don't think it will be equal to the other sizes. I still believe that it is twice harder to get Megapuss than Teacup. I would think it will be based on the weigh so let's assume it this way:
- Normal - 91%
- Teacup - 2%
- Toy - 2%
- Petite - 2%
- Bigger de Big - 2%
- Megapuss - 1%
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - fabioazevedo Oh - 11-07-2014 11:22 AM
(11-07-2014 11:07 AM)Crepe Myrtle Wrote: Hi, Fabao. Thank you for inputting those numbers to create a random presentation, but I really think that the weigh for the megapuss will be around 1%. I am not sure how others are getting the percentage of megapuss in their cattery, but I don't think it will be equal to the other sizes. I still believe that it is twice harder to get Megapuss than Teacup. I would think it will be based on the weigh so let's assume it this way:
- Normal - 91%
- Teacup - 2%
- Toy - 2%
- Petite - 2%
- Bigger de Big - 2%
- Megapuss - 1%
Hey Crepe,
I adjusted precisely to the percentages that you had. see the results.
Size_Normal = 2045
Size_Teacup = 41
Size_Toy = 36
Size_Petite = 43
Size_BiggerdeBig = 52
Size_MegaPuss = 20
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2018
Size_Teacup = 57
Size_Toy = 57
Size_Petite = 50
Size_BiggerdeBig = 45
Size_MegaPuss = 23
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2033
Size_Teacup = 44
Size_Toy = 52
Size_Petite = 41
Size_BiggerdeBig = 45
Size_MegaPuss = 25
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2036
Size_Teacup = 49
Size_Toy = 40
Size_Petite = 53
Size_BiggerdeBig = 42
Size_MegaPuss = 20
Total = 2269
Size_Normal = 2051
Size_Teacup = 40
Size_Toy = 60
Size_Petite = 36
Size_BiggerdeBig = 38
Size_MegaPuss = 18
Total = 2269
omg. Look at the results. So close. fantastic
I did the system choose a random number between 1-100, the same percentage that you had.
What I understood was that there is no order of arrival, but the system is generated in each new box. all boxes pass the same 'random system', previously adjusted.