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+--- Thread: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! (/showthread.php?tid=16308)
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Vrem Vaniva - 06-13-2014 11:15 PM
So nice that you share your data with us, Fabio, as well as the analysis and the nifty pie charts! Thank you!
Well, according to the odds, then , ... i should be due for a dozen kittens with special sizes, lol ... well, i didn't count exactly but ... a lot! I haven't had any special size since May 23 or so and it was a Petite. Not much before that either. But then, "it never rains, but it pours," and sometimes we get several all on the same day or in a week. I like that you point out that it's systemwide, not per avatar ... and also, it's really good that you used such a large sample . Most of us don't see that many ....
It would be interesting to get similar stats on Gems . There is pressure to drop the prices of gems , but i don't see them becoming any less rare, so I will keep mine rather than yield to pressure. They are much more rare than special-sized kitties for sure.
PS, it occurs to me that the data pool might still be too small, in Fabio's bunch, to draw conclusions about the overall frequency of particular sizes (teacups vs petites and toys and megapusses etc ) -- because ... sample is only 45 cats with special sizes. It would be interesting to see results over a longer period with an even larger sample size. The analysis LOOKS right, and intuition tells me that those percentages are right, but ... it's still only 45 animals.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - anna Acanthus - 06-14-2014 02:05 AM
Interesting … so i thought i'd compare and found that viewing my whole collection i have at the moment about 2,180 lives and boxes of which 140 are special sizes = 1/15.5 specials.
Of course this isn't at all the same test case as your's, (i've been breeding since March 2011), the Mega, Bigga and Petite were introduced January 2013, so forgetting the Teacup and Toy which were the original special sizes, my proportions for these are a bit different from your's :
Mega : 7
Bigga : 13
petite : 17
I haven't sold very many of theses 3 sizes and in general i don't menagerie a special size, but i have menageried loads of normal sizes, at least 1,300 i'd say, which would imply that my overall special size incidence would be even less frequent than 1/15.5 but as i can't remember how many Teas and Toys i've sold or given i can't make a very sure estimate.
Impossible also to make any overall estimation as from January 2013 in my case.
So anyhow, the divergence of your and my statistics suggests to me that the incidence of Toys and Teacups was maintained and the 3 newer sizes' frequency was added when they were introduced, rather than the 5 sizes being spread over the same frequency of special size incidence as before, hence the augmentation .
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - fabioazevedo Oh - 06-14-2014 08:24 AM
(06-09-2014 10:38 AM)Crepe Myrtle Wrote: Thanks for sharing, Fabao. It's very informative. You did this by each pair. Have you done an analysis based on how many kitten boxes you get in a day and check the sizes? I haven't really paid attention to the sizes. When I increased my stock, I got different sizes almost daily. I used to get about 80 kitten boxes per week. But now, I am down to 40 kitten boxes per week so the different sizes are more random. I really think it's random, depending on the size of your cattery. My two cents
I have a little over 200 boxes per week.
My sample was just watching, boxes of kittens started. I have not collected data for all kittens born in my cattery.
What makes it an interesting research was that I collected data into 6 different weeks. So, I have a sample well distributed, and random.
(06-09-2014 10:00 PM)PrettyPoizen Resident Wrote: Thank you! This is an interesting statistic if only because it shows how relatively rare Megas are in the overall picture. And the chance of getting a high quality mega are the same as a lower traited one. So that encourages me to just breed the best of what I have. I just hate when i get a mega that is all size and no substance...drives me nuts! LOL
That's why I love Pretty, and his intelligence.
Fantastic observation.
This can be applied to any size. You may have a megapuss 9t, how can having a megapuss 1t. You may have a Teacup 9t, as 1t may have a teacup. Everything depends on the kittens you have. If you have good kittens will have good kittens in special sizes.
example:
? New Born Kitten
Fur: Snowshoe - Cream
Eyes: Odyssey Bellini (Shape: Mysterious | Pupil: Small)
Shade: Twinkle
Tail: Plush
Ears: Curious
Whiskers: 2 Tone Black & White (Shape: Mysterious)
Size: MegaPuss
(06-10-2014 09:21 AM)Tad Carlucci Wrote: I count 333 (not 318) samples in your dataset.
Ya know. This is a good study. It gives good guidance to the market. Based solely on size, all other things being equal, for example, using Teacup, I get it should be worth:
- 40% more than a Petite
- 80% more than a Toy
- 28 times a Normal
- 40% the price of a Bigger de Big or MegaPuss
Similar comparisons could be done for all the others.
I recounted 3 times the amount of sample kittens. All gave 318. Anyway.
Loved his analysis of the market orientation. Data within a database is just data. But, when the data are organized, they viewed information.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - fabioazevedo Oh - 06-14-2014 09:55 AM
(06-13-2014 11:15 PM)Vrem Vaniva Wrote: So nice that you share your data with us, Fabio, as well as the analysis and the nifty pie charts! Thank you!
Well, according to the odds, then , ... i should be due for a dozen kittens with special sizes, lol ... well, i didn't count exactly but ... a lot! I haven't had any special size since May 23 or so and it was a Petite. Not much before that either. But then, "it never rains, but it pours," and sometimes we get several all on the same day or in a week. I like that you point out that it's systemwide, not per avatar ... and also, it's really good that you used such a large sample . Most of us don't see that many ....
It would be interesting to get similar stats on Gems . There is pressure to drop the prices of gems , but i don't see them becoming any less rare, so I will keep mine rather than yield to pressure. They are much more rare than special-sized kitties for sure.
PS, it occurs to me that the data pool might still be too small, in Fabio's bunch, to draw conclusions about the overall frequency of particular sizes (teacups vs petites and toys and megapusses etc ) -- because ... sample is only 45 cats with special sizes. It would be interesting to see results over a longer period with an even larger sample size. The analysis LOOKS right, and intuition tells me that those percentages are right, but ... it's still only 45 animals.
Many thanks Vrem. Always good to read your comments and analizes.
I think this part is the most important. It is a system rule, not a rule by Avatar. This happens to me too. No special size in a day. The other day, any special sizes.
I agree with you that my sample may be small compared to the total amount of boxes that the system generates daily.
I took samples of 6 different days, in 6 different weeks, trying to be as unbiased as possible, and random.
Like all research, there is a margin of error, plus or less. And, in my conclusion, I do not think the numbers will change absurdly.
I see that the number can change up to 1 point or 1 point down, even raising the sample to 1000 kittens.
Something like, "normal 7, and 1 special."
Or "normal 5 and 1 special."
I do not believe we would have a result like: "normal 12, and 1 special." or "15 normal and 1 special." for me this will not happen.
The goal was to prove that the system size, it is not random, as it is spoken. There is a clear rule, where a large percentage to the 'normal size'. But, what is observed is that the choice of "special size" is random.
ps. I am preparing an analysis on jewelry. And a 'price list', easy to use, to determine the value of the gem.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Aramis Gontineac - 06-14-2014 04:16 PM
Hi Fabao,
thx for this interesting study. It made me curious to see if i have the same patterns as you. As i keep track of all my cats and kittens, i did a quick check and found the following results :
Total 470 100%
normal 391 83%
teacup 9 2%
toy 16 3%
petite 27 6%
bigger 14 3%
mega 13 3%
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Crepe Myrtle - 06-14-2014 07:30 PM
After my comments earlier, I have reviewed my cattery. Though I started breeding when KittyCats started, I can't give an accurate statistics from my other avatar so I will give statistics form this avatar. I checked the total kitty boxes I have and I have up to 1575 as of June 7th. I have more, but I will not include it. I started breeding on this avatar April 2013 with one pair because I was still breeding on my other avatar. Eventually, I increased my pairs as my projects expanded.
I believe that the sizes are quite random based on the size of your cattery. To put my theory to a test, I put this together, based on what I have up to June 7th. For the first 4 rows, I did it by months and afterwards I calculated the number of kitty boxes and what sizes I got every week. The number of kitty fluctuated due to retired kitties or sent few to get kitty points.
![[Image: eb4213c104821f3f15ee45c26ed68a10.png]](http://gyazo.com/eb4213c104821f3f15ee45c26ed68a10.png)
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Luna1987 Resident - 06-18-2014 01:24 PM
WOW! That was a TON of work, but super cool to see the numbers!
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - jwenting Resident - 10-26-2014 02:20 AM
your conclusions are not correct. While the 1 in 7 may well be true, as well as the percentages of special sizes, there's no way of telling how this is implemented on the server.
In fact rather than the server deciding every 7th kitten that's birthed to be a special size, it's far more likely there's a relatively simple random number generator involved that pulls a random number of 1-100 and from that takes the first 80 to be normal, then 81-81 Bigger de Big, 83-84 Mega, etc. etc.
The result would be an identical chance for everyone to get one of the special sizes over the course of a time period, the mechanism you describe would effectively cause the special sizes to be almost completely monopolised by the very large breeders who produce dozens of kittens every day.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Aubreygrace Starlight - 10-26-2014 06:19 AM
Interesting but I usually don't get any special sizes for a few weeks and I'm breeding 80 cats. If it's working for you that's great however I think it's just really random. The last special size I got was a teacup the other day and that was my first in a month or so. I also haven't had a mega in about 8 months or so. I do get the other sizes but since I don't breed as much as other's do the odds are a lil less for me and I think it's just completely random. I know people who get megas all the time but they breed a few hundred cats. I have less than 100 sooo LOL it's all good though I breed for fun and doing an exact science on it doesn't make it fun if you're expecting something.
RE: Every 7 kittens born, 6 are normal size and 1 special size! - Tad Carlucci - 10-26-2014 10:27 AM
It's random.
And, yes, that means someone, somewhere, some time, will get exactly 6 normals, then one special, repeating precisely that pattern many times in a row.
What surprised me was the high odds to get a not-Normal size.
But, knowing it is so common explains why so many people are convinced it breeds.